U.S. Strategic Stakes in Critical Resources: Trilogy Marks a Broader Pattern

by Brad Gastwirth Global Head of Research and Market Intelligence

Executive Summary

The U.S. government’s 10% equity stake in Trilogy Metals reflects a major inflection point in American industrial policy shifting from indirect incentives to direct ownership in the foundational industries that power the next decade of innovation and defense.

This follows government investments in Intel (semiconductors), MP Materials (rare earths), and proposed stakes in Lithium Americas and others. Collectively, these moves indicate that Washington is adopting a strategic equity model using ownership to secure supply chains for AI, clean energy, and defense technologies.

The message is clear: the U.S. is no longer just subsidizing strategic sectors it’s buying stakes in the technologies that define them.

Strategic Context

America’s reliance on foreign sources for critical minerals, components, and manufacturing capacity has become a national security concern.

The Trilogy stake, tied to Alaska’s Ambler Mining District, is part of a coordinated industrial push spanning from mine-to-microchip.

By embedding itself directly in supply chains for copper, cobalt, rare earths, and semiconductors, Washington aims to de-risk key bottlenecks that underpin the digital, energy, and defense economies.

Technology Supply Chain: The Next Frontier for Strategic Equity

Semiconductors & Advanced Packaging

The U.S. is investing heavily to rebuild semiconductor independence is not just at the chip level, but across the entire value chain:

Intel already received both direct subsidies and a 10% equity stake commitment from the U.S. government.

The next likely equity candidates include GlobalFoundries, Wolfspeed, SkyWater Technology, and firms in advanced packaging and substrates (CoWoS, InFO, FCBGA) essential for AI accelerators and defense systems.

The U.S. may extend investments to substrate suppliers such as Rogers Corp, Coherent, and 5N Plus to ensure secure sourcing for high-frequency and thermal management materials.

Strategic rationale: The U.S. is not just seeking chip independence it’s building a vertically integrated semiconductor ecosystem from substrate to system.

AI Infrastructure & Data Center Supply Chain

AI is rapidly becoming a national-scale infrastructure priority. With AI training consuming gigawatts of power and billions of dollars in hardware, the U.S. could expand its equity involvement in:

Compute Infrastructure: GPU and accelerator makers (AMD, Nvidia ecosystem partners, Cerebras, Groq, Tenstorrent).

Cooling & Power Systems: Companies providing immersion cooling, AI-specific power management, and liquid loop technology (Vertiv, CoolIT, Submer, Schneider Electric’s U.S. division).

Optical Interconnects & Memory Modules: Firms enabling high-bandwidth data flow and HBM integration (Broadcom, Marvell, Celestica, Micron, Amkor).

U.S. based server manufacturing: Expect potential minority stakes or preferred equity lines in domestic integrators serving hyperscaler and defense workloads.

Strategic rationale: As AI becomes infrastructure, Washington wants ownership influence over the physical backbone of model training, inference, and cloud deployment.

Quantum, Photonics & Edge Compute

The next wave of federal equity could reach quantum computing, photonics, and edge AI sectors where the U.S. lags in component fabrication.

Potential candidates include:

PsiQuantum, IonQ, Rigetti – Quantum computing hardware.

Lightmatter, Ayar Labs – Silicon photonics interconnects for data centers.

SiTime, Ambiq, Edge Impulse – Low-power edge processors critical for IoT and defense applications.

Strategic rationale: Quantum, photonics, and edge AI are all critical to next-generation defense and intelligence systems areas where early U.S. ownership can secure technological dominance.

Advanced Manufacturing & Materials Engineering

Expect equity participation to extend into AI-driven manufacturing, robotics, and smart materials that intersect defense and industrial policy:

Boston Dynamics, Velo3D, Desktop Metal, Relativity Space potential equity candidates as the U.S. seeks to secure additive manufacturing and automation for defense and aerospace supply chains.

Carbon, Divergent Technologies, AMP Robotics innovators at the intersection of AI and sustainability that align with reindustrialization policy goals.

Strategic rationale: Ownership in advanced manufacturing firms reduces dependency on offshore tooling and accelerates U.S. production resilience.

Critical Materials: The Foundation Layer

Semiconductors (Silicon, Gallium, Germanium): Used in computing, radar, and defense electronics. U.S. exposure: Dependent on Asia for wafers and China for gallium/germanium.

Potential beneficiaries: Intel, GlobalFoundries, Wolfspeed, SkyWater, 5N Plus, Materion.

Copper: Critical for data centers, EVs, power grids, and defense systems. U.S. exposure: Reliant on Chile and Peru.

Potential beneficiaries: Trilogy Metals, Freeport-McMoRan, Hudbay, Taseko.

Lithium: Core to EV batteries and grid-scale energy storage. U.S. exposure: 70%+ imported (Australia, Chile, Argentina).

Potential beneficiaries: Lithium Americas, Piedmont Lithium, Albemarle, Standard Lithium.

Nickel: Used in EV cathodes and aerospace alloys. U.S. exposure: Refining dominated by Indonesia/China.

Potential beneficiaries: Talon Metals, FPX Nickel.

Cobalt: Vital for EVs, defense systems, and electronics. U.S. exposure: >70% mined in DRC, refined in China.

Potential beneficiaries: Electra Battery Materials, Jervois Global.

Graphite: Used for EV batteries and missile guidance systems. U.S. exposure: Fully imported; China dominates refining.

Potential beneficiaries: Graphite One, Syrah Resources.

Energy & Grid Infrastructure

Potential investments in small modular reactors (SMRs), geothermal, and hydrogen infrastructure.

Potential equity partnerships: NuScale Power, X-energy, Centrus Energy, Bloom Energy.

What to Watch

DOE & DoD Strategic Industrial Base Equity Programs (Q4 2025–Q1 2026): Expect hybrid funding and ownership models spanning battery materials, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure.

Ambler Road Decision (Trilogy Test Case): The outcome will signal how aggressive federal agencies will be in backing critical mineral logistics.

Defense Production Act Expansion: The DPA may formally authorize equity investments in both materials and defense tech a structural policy shift.

Semiconductor Ecosystem Deals: Watch for U.S. equity or preferred-stock participation in Wolfspeed, GlobalFoundries, or Coherent tied to domestic chip capacity.

AI Data Infrastructure Investments: Monitor potential DOE or DOD-linked investment vehicles targeting data center power, cooling, and compute infrastructure.

Global Geopolitical Pressure Points: New export restrictions (China, Indonesia) could trigger additional rounds of U.S. direct equity in threatened resource chains.

Summary:

The Trilogy Metals investment is not an isolated act it’s part of a coordinated national strategy to regain technological and resource sovereignty.

From AI chips and semiconductors to critical minerals and defense propulsion, the U.S. government is now assembling an ownership portfolio across the physical and digital infrastructure of the 21st century.

by Brad Gastwirth Global Head of Research and Market Intelligence